Welcome back!
I am going to get right into my theory of how to predict the Open WODS but first let us do a recap what we have seen and not seen yet in the 2014 Crossfit Open.
Movements so far:
Barbell- Snatch, OHS, Deadlift
Technique/Gymnastics- Double Unders, Chest to Bar Pullups, Box Jumps
Typical Open movements not seen yet:
Barbell- Clean, Shoulder-to-Overhead, Thruster
Technique/Gymnastics– Burpee, Toes to Bar
If you have not read the previous blogs (by the way, thank you to the over 5000+ who have in the last three weeks) you won’t know that I have been wrong on every single WOD guess. You also would not know that I have been right on some very important pieces of this year’s Crossfit Open. First and foremost I have discussed the importance of inclusiveness in the Open and how it must maintain for Crossfit to continue its upward projection in fitness culture dominance. We established that although Double Unders are indeed a technical movement, they are something that gets people multiple reps (thusly, points). DUs are also one of, if not the first technical gymnastic skill that a beginner to Crossfit will encounter. Any age, shape or size of person will eventually be able to be somewhat proficient enough at this movement. We also talked about the scaling of weights to allow a lower entry level (also for the accumulation of points) but gradually increase to separate athletes. I guaranteed the return of the Overhead Squat in this years Open and to all of our surprise and dismay, it returned. We also saw that I correctly predicted that Deadlifts and Boxjumps would be included in 14.3, so now lets get to how I came up with that one….
I never look at Crossfit.com’s programming because I do not believe that their “hopper model” as they teach it is a good way to train a Crossfitter, weekend warrior or athlete. To summarize it, Crossfit takes every exercise they can think of, they put it into a theoretical hopper and they pull out what I assume is a predetermined amount of exercises to be performed. It would take far too much time to discuss and ultimately successfully argue a better way to train Crossfit.com athletes but there can be at least one slight improvement. Take the hopper model but instead of one big hopper have individual hoppers that represent a body group or movement (ie. Overhead, Squats, Gymnastics, Olympic Lifts, ect.) Randomize the picking out of these hoppers but establish a plan on roughly what hopper is used each day to prevent overtraining and maximize results.
So back to not looking at Crossfit.com’s “programming”…….
I looked at each of the previous seven days prior to the announcement of the Open WOD. If you notice, as I did, there was never an Open WOD movement programmed seven days prior to, on the .com website. The best example of this happened with 14.3. Deadlifts had showed up in both the previous weeks but failed to show up in the week of 14.3….until the 7th day…which was 14.3. So if this remains true to form then you can say bye bye to MU, Burpees, Pullups, Thrusters and KB for the next Open WOD.
My prediction (remember that this is only a prediction, I am just an average Joe trying to figure this stuff out because it is a fun topic of conversation) based off of the Crossft.com WODs and past Open WODs is….
AMRAP (rep scheme like 13.3?)
Wallballs
Toes to Bar
Muscle-Ups*
*I also think this will be a triplet of 15-20min in length so if I was to include one extra exercise it would be Muscle-ups. This goes against my theory but because MUs were 6 days previous and at low reps, I am a little more confident they would show up.
I think this one will be a lengthy triplet, something to test the oxidative system, let people score points while get progressively harder. I also think that because we have seen a barbell in each of the past WODs, we may get a reprieve from that this time around. You may have noticed that I also put zero thought into my prediction in relation to the athlete Crossfit has selected for their live throwdown. I simply do not care. I am going to bank that Crossfit wants to maintain their random, be prepared for anything that is thrown at you mantra and I do not think they cherry pick athletes who will be good at a specific Open WOD.
As always, feel free to leave your thoughts and comments. Maybe you see something I don’t, maybe you have your own theories. Thank you for reading! Let’s get ready for 14.4!
(Reminder that followers of this blog during the Crossfit Open receive 10% off purchases at Str/ke MVMNT, click the banner, use code GLA101 at checkout. You will not be disappointed)
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